We hope this finds you well – and don’t worry, we are almost certain this is the last snowfall of the spring! Here is a recap of this week’s performance in the S&P 500:
This week, we came across the following chart put out by Strategas Research:
The list shows the best 15 trading day return periods on the S&P 500. The “Last 15 Days” period ended on April 14, 2020. The second column shows the percentage return over the 15 days prior to that date. The next four columns show returns over the following 20, 65, 125, and 250-day periods. As you can see, returns are typically negative over the 20 and 65-day periods, but attractive over the 125 and 250-day periods.
Based on historical periods similar to the one we are currently in, the market is likely to be flat or down over the coming weeks and months, and then continue upward. While we can’t guarantee what will happen in the future, we think this type of path is a reasonable expectation for how the market could navigate the next part of this pandemic. Compared to the historical averages at the bottom of the chart, times like these often show positive, increased returns over longer periods of time.
Please reach out to us if you would like to discuss this further.